Pure Fantasy Week 4

Week Four: Apologies and Breakout QBs

Okay, guys, nobody's perfect. Not all of my advice is going to pan out, okay? Let's get that straight first and foremost. I did not know that Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller were going to be healthy enough to start against the Patriots, thereby rendering Tashard Choice useless. I didn't know Russell Wilson was going to take a giant step back against the Rams of all teams after his success against the Packers, making Golden Tate more like Bronzean Tate. Jake Locker got hurt and Christian Ponder didn't need to do much. I figured Ahmad Bradshaw would start!

I have no excuse for Mikel Leshoure.

But hey. Andy Dalton did great again, the Cardinals running backs did badly, and I was totally right about Ryan Mathews! Four out of ten isn't bad...right...?

Pure Recap:
It wasn't too long ago that Tom Brady was considered his generation's Troy Aikman. By that I mean he was a quarterback who always stepped up in the clutch, who won his team games and championships but always put up middling stat lines: 200-yard, one touchdown, one interception games. Great quarterback in real life—he has the championships to prove it—but not in fantasy football. Then, in 2007, Brady broke through (fantasy-wise) in the biggest way, by tossing an NFL record for touchdowns. His lost 2008 season notwithstanding, he's been a stud ever since.

It would seem that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are turning a similar corner this year. Neither have been renowned for their fantasy prowess, and neither finished in the top five of their position in their careers. At this point, however, Ryan is the second-best quarterback in fantasy land, and Flacco isn't too far behind at seventh. Ryan has thrown for 11 touchdowns, second only to Ryan “Hot N Cold” Fitzpatrick, who has also thrown for seven interceptions. Ryan has only tossed two picks. Flacco has also attained a favorable 7-3 TD/INT ratio throughout the first four games.

Both quarterbacks have performed better than perennial studs Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Cam Newton, and Peyton Manning.

Pure Advice:

If you can avoid it, avoid starting any Buffalo Bill running back. Not only are they facing the tenacious 49ers run defense this week (which has only given up less than eight points per game to running backs this season), but Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are also operating on a fantasy player's worst nightmare: the two-headed running back by committee. As long as they are both healthy, they will be operating on a nearly 50-50 timeshare, halving their potential production. If you have a halfway decent running back option, a la Cedric Benson, don't hesitate to use it.

CJ2K owners, don't put too much stock into the Titans' running back's 157 total yards. 63 of those came in garbage time after Tennessee received a shellacking from the Texans. As ESPN's Christopher Harris pointed out in his weekly column, it isn't Chris Johnson's fault his production is down. His offensive line is horrendous. While they had a great game, they are also huge wild cards. You have to count on them failing more often then not.

Stay patient with Julio Jones. While some (including myself) started panicking after his mediocre-to-awful past three weeks, ending with a one-catch statline last week against the Panthers, we have to keep in mind that he is nursing a hand injury as well as starting alongside Roddy White, who is an elite receiver in his own right. As he grows healthier and defenses start concentrating on White again, expect Jones' production to rocket again. He is a boom-or-bust receiver, and his booms can singlehandedly win you a game. Keep him in your starting lineup against the shoddy Redskins' pass defense.

Miami Dolphins' wide receiver Brian Hartline will keep producing, just probably not this week. Don't expect 250+ yard games every week, but QB Ryan Tannehill obviously senses a rapport with the Ohio State grad, and will be his go-to man for the rest of the season. If you won the inevitable Brian Hartline Sweepstakes on your league's waiver wire this week, celebrate but temper your expectations.

A good defense can make a huge difference nowadays. Last week, the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers defenses kept up with the likes of Cam Newton, putting up 27 and 32 points, respectively, in my league.

Kickers usually take a backseat to the rest of the league's position players, but Rams K Greg Zeurlein could make a difference for your team if still available. A perfect 12-12 on the season, including a 60-yarder, Zeurlein is making a case for Rookie of the Year.

Hahaha. Just kidding. Kickers can't do things like that.

James Jones is a great pickup this week if you need a wide receiver/flex player. With Greg Jennings ailing, the talented wideout could be getting more looks from superstar QB Aaron Rodgers. He scored two touchdowns while gaining 56 yards on five catches, and he should keep getting passes thrown his way.

Pick up Chargers RB Jackie Battle, but don't expect him to put up the same numbers that he did last week. I suspect that Ryan Mathew's lack of production last week was a dramatic “time-out,” given to him by the San Diego coaching staff as punishment for his fumbling problems. He'll get more production this week, but Battle is going to eat into his carries after his successful 81-yard, two touchdown spree against the sorry Kansas City defense. Mathews could respond well to this motivational strategy, or he may continue his fumbling problems, which would give Battle more work. In any case, he should continue to at least vulture (steal) goal-line carries and touchdowns. Hang on to him just in case.

Check back next week to see if my advice panned out. Godspeed, and happy fantasizing.