NFL Week 4 Preview

Three games are certainly not enough to form an accurate judgment on an NFL franchise in the grind that is the 16-game regular season. Three games do give a glimpse of a team’s strengths and weaknesses, however. The first three games of this season make it quite clear that the Pittsburgh Steelers are no slouch. It is apparent that the San Diego Chargers’ playoff chances are, ironically enough, unclear. It is also rather evident that the Atlanta Falcons are a force to be reckoned with in the NFC.

1. The Most Impressive Team of the First Three Weeks

No team has been more impressive than the Pittsburgh Steelers through the first three regular season games. Without two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for the first four games of the year, the pundits, myself included, doubted the Steelers’ ability to weather the storm. We were wrong.

It doesn’t seem to matter who starts at quarterback for the Steelers, as the team boasts impressive road wins over the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as well as a Week One home win over the Atlanta Falcons.

In three games, fill-in quarterbacks Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch have averaged a mere 20 tosses per game. Their combined 418 passing yards is tied for dead last in the league with the dismal Buffalo Bills.

Their running game has made up the difference. The team’s 150 yards per game average ranks third behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons, respectively. Third year stud running back Rashard Mendenhall is fourth in the league in rushing, averaging 110.7 yards a game and a stunning 5.2 yards per carry.

The vaunted Steelers’ defense has not disappointed either, ranking sixth in the NFL in total yards allowed.

In three games, the Steelers have a touchdown on both defense and special teams. Antonio Brown took a reverse kickoff 89 yards for a touchdown to start off the game in Week 2. Last week defensive end Brett Keisel picked off Buccaneers’ quarterback Josh Freeman and returned it 79 yards for a score.

This week the Steelers play their last game without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but it may very well be their toughest, as the team hosts the rival Baltimore Ravens at Heinz Field. If the Steelers can grind out an ugly victory against the 2-1 Ravens, I cannot imagine how scary they will be when their Pro Bowl quarterback is back and gunning the ball all over the field.

2. How much do the Chargers miss Vincent Jackson?

The Chargers have been known to get off to slow starts under head coach Norv Turner, so the team’s 1-2 record through three weeks should not come as a shock to anyone.

What might be surprising to some is how little the team has seemed to miss 2009 alternate Pro Bowl receiver Vincent Jackson, who is still holding out from team activities because of a desire for a long-term contract. Jackson is also in the midst of finishing a three-week suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Last year Jackson caught 68 balls for 1,167 yards and nine touchdowns in 15 starts, leading the Chargers to the AFC West title and a first-round bye in the Conference Playoffs. Jackson also performed well in 2008, hauling in 59 passes for 1,098 yards and seven scores.

Without Jackson, it was expected that quarterback Philip Rivers would struggle with a lack of weapons because the team possesses no established receiving threat outside of Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates.

Statistically speaking, Rivers has shined, leading the league in passing with 1,087 yards through the air. However, underneath these basic statistics lie more telling trends that fail in comparison with last year. For one, Rivers is tied for ninth in the league with four interceptions, whereas he only threw nine all of last year. On third down, a typical passing down, the Chargers are tied for fourteenth in the league, converting a mere 38 percent of attempts. Last year the Chargers ranked seventh in the league in the same department, succeeding on 44 percent of third down attempts.

In addition, the Chargers averaged 28.4 points a game last year, putting them fourth in the league. So far this season the team has averaged 24 points per contest, which is tied for eighth in league rankings.

The differences may seem subtle, but in a game of inches like football they certainly cannot be ignored.

This week San Diego hopes to reverse these trends when they play host to the Arizona Cardinals at Qualcomm Stadium.

3. The Atlanta Falcons are a legitimate NFC threat.

The Falcons rebounded in Week 2 after a tumultuous Week One road overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, soundly defeating the 2-1 Arizona Cardinals by a score of 41-7 at home. They followed up with a second straight win over the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on an overtime field goal in the Superdome.

When operating at full strength, the Falcons possess an elite offensive unit that may be second to none in the NFC.
Quarterback Matt Ryan is playing sound football, averaging 235 yards through the air per contest. He is completing 63.2 percent of his passes and enjoying a 94.3 passer rating while only throwing one interception compared to five touchdowns. Roddy White is Ryan’s obvious go-to receiver, ranking second in the league with 25 catches.

With no disrespect to Ryan, Atlanta’s rushing unit is its bread and butter. The Falcons have two backs, Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, ranked in the top 20 in the league in rushing and the team is averaging 160.3 yards per game on the ground, which is only 0.4 yards behind the first place Kansas City Chiefs. Turner is averaging four yards per carry on 58 attempts, and Snelling has compiled a 4.9-yard per carry average on 40 runs.

Finally, on top of the stellar offensive production, the Falcons defense ranks sixth in the league, giving up a stingy 15.3 points per game. Keep in mind that one of those three games included a date with one of the most prolific NFL offenses of the past decade in Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

The Falcons should have little problem continuing this remarkable play, as the team hosts the less-than-mediocre San Francisco 49ers this weekend at the Georgia Dome.