MLB Playoff Preview

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Thousands of fans from across the nation bundle up, prepare for radical changes in temperature, and make their way out to the ballpark to root, root, root for the home team.

Some fans have persevered through the countless losing seasons, others are bandwagon jumpers leaning over to ask, “who’s number five again?” Some die-hards drive thousands of miles just to take in a few innings, and cross it off the bucket list. Everyone can agree is an amazing experience: October baseball.

This season’s playoff qualifiers each have a unique story: a consistent World Series letdown, a perennial contender, a box office sequel, a fourteen season losing streak snapped, and a city’s first taste of playoff baseball since the Roosevelt administration. Who has the edge to take home the trophy?

American League

Baltimore Orioles (93-69, Wild Card, first winning season since 1997)

The Good: The O’s are a club stacked with power, trailing only the Bronx Bombers with their 214 home runs, including five starters with over 20. The bullpen has been a spectacle to watch. In his first full season as a closer, Jim Johnson leads the majors with 51 saves. Each of the Orioles’ top six relievers holds a sub-three Earned Run Average. Chris Tillman is finally finding his footing as a starting pitcher, and Miguel Gonzalez is quietly having a stellar rookie season.

The Bad: This season’s playoff appearance is nothing short of a miracle. Numbers wise, this is a .500 team at best. Despite the power surge, the O’s hit just .247 as a club and struck out over 1300 times. The starting pitching has been in shambles as of late, leading to the division slipping away the last weekend of the season. Wei-Yin Chen, the only ten game winner, has lost his last four decisions. Jason Hammel, the staff ace through June, was letting an amazing season slip away before two extended trips to the disabled list.

Bottom Line: More amazing things have happened, but the O’s have some Texas-sized obstacles to overcome if they want to go deep into the postseason.

Detroit Tigers (88-74, Central, lost to Texas in 2011 ALCS)

The Good: Omar Infante’s return to the Tigers has been triumphant, plugging a gaping hole at second base. One of the better American League platoons has been manning left field. Andy Dirks is second on the Tigers with a .322 average; Quintin Berry gives the club much needed speed on the base paths. Miguel Cabrera has proven a thousand times over that he hasn’t lost a step at third, winning the first Triple Crown in 45 years. Anchoring the starting staff are the AL strikeout leaders in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

The Bad: This is not the same Tigers team from last year. Despite Cabrera’s milestone season, the rest of the lineup hasn’t been able to put up last year’s numbers. Victor Martinez has been lost all year due to injury, while Alex Avila and Johnny Peralta have fallen back to Earth. The bullpen lacks the lights out setup man they had last year in Al Alburquerque. Closer Jose Valverde had a disaster of a season, and the entire bullpen is showing signs of aging.

Bottom Line: The Tigers were lucky to play in a division with the collapsing Chicago White Sox. Either AL Wild Card team should have no trouble holding them off.

New York Yankees (95-67, East, 16th postseason appearance in 17 seasons)

The Good: “Good” is a word consistently synonymous with New York Yankees vocabulary. The Bronx Bombers continued to take advantage of the Yankee Stadium jet stream, hitting a club record 245 home runs and scoring 804 runs. Ten players hit at least fourteen home runs. Former All-Stars Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones provide a solid DH platoon, hitting a combined 30 homers and 71 RBIs. Ichiro is back to old form in
pinstripes. Out of the bullpen, Rafael Soriano has been solid in the absence of Mariano Rivera, and David Robertson continues to strike hitters out at a ridiculous rate.

The Bad: Alex Rodriguez is coming off his worst season ever, his 57 RBIs a career low and just seventh on his own club. Russell Martin continues to struggle at the plate, hitting just .211. Most importantly, this will be the first playoff series since the 70s the Yankees will be without Mariano Rivera, who has 43 career playoff saves in 48 chances.

Bottom Line: The Yankees have a shot at the World Series every year. This is the clearest one since their last championship in 2009.

Oakland Athletics (94-68, West, last playoff appearance in 2006)

The Good: The A’s have finally incorporated base stealing into their game, sixth in the league with 122 and let by Coco Crisp and his 39. Despite an anemic start to the season, the A’s offense improved rapidly with the mid-season addition of Brandon Moss and Chris Carter, leading them to take the division from the Rangers. Despite injuries, the hefty investment in Yoenis Cespedes paid off, who anchors a solid middle of the order with Josh Reddick. While this year’s staff hasn’t garnered the reputation of the big three in the early 2000s, the combined ERA is the lowest since the three-peat teams of the 70s. Ryan Cook and Grant Balfour have both proven that they can step into the closer role.

The Bad: The Oakland offense could easily fall back into bad habits. Despite finishing eighth in runs, the A’s hit a league low .238 and struck out a league high 1387 times, only the second time in history a team has had more strikeouts than hits. Two key pieces of the rotation are missing, with Bartolo Colon serving a drug suspension, and Brandon McCarthy questionable to return with a concussion.

Bottom Line: Fresh off a box office hit, Billy Beane still has yet to win the last game of the season. It’ll be a challenge, but if lightning strikes twice, this could be the team to win it all.

Texas Rangers (93-69, Wild Card, lost back to back World Series)

The Good: The Rangers return all nine starters from last season, when they took the World Series to seven games. They have the best offense in the American League over the past two seasons. Josh Hamilton continues to add to his legacy with another monstrous season, while Adrian Beltre hit .340 down the stretch to finish out the year. Elvis Andrus continues to improve from the top of the order, sporting a career high .349 on base percentage. Closer Joe Nathan made an incredible comeback at age 37, saving 37 games with a 2.80 ERA. Yu Darvish has finally overcome his control issue, walking only 7 over the final month of the season.

The Bad: The Rangers have already lost two Fall Classics in a row, who’s to say they can keep it together this year? Michael Young’s average dropped over 60 points from last season, and he’s no longer the cleanup threat he once was. Mike Napoli’s numbers have fallen off a cliff, his average down over 90 points, and slugging percentage down another 160. Mitch Moreland continues to have issues with staying healthy, and the Rangers have yet to find a suitable backup at first base. This rotation does not have near the depth of last year. Ryan Dempster is 7-3 since being traded, but his ERA is up over 5. Alexi Ogando has struggled in the pen as of late.

Bottom Line: The Rangers have been there. They have the experience. On paper, they’re the favorites to win it all. They’ve already lost the division, can they take the Series?

Atlanta Braves (94-68, Wild Card, second playoff appearance in three years)

The Good: For the second year in a row, the Braves bullpen has the nastiest stuff in baseball. Craig Kimbrel has 116 strikeouts in just 63 innings, the highest rate in history. They have several rotation options; Ben Sheets has been solid after missing two and a half seasons. Kris Medlen has been untouchable since moving to the rotation, with a 10-1 mark and a microscopic 1.57 ERA in 138 innings. Martin Prado and Jason Heyward have returned to All-Star form after losing their way for most of 2011. Despite dealing with his usual injury issues, Chipper Jones is having a solid final season, hitting .287 with 62 RBI playing third base every day.

The Bad: Dan Uggla is still having issues making contact, and now it’s spreading to Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman. McCann is hitting just .230, 40 points below his previous low. The Braves still have yet to find a long-term shortstop, and will settle for the young, unproven Andrelton Simmons. After holding opponents scoreless in April, Johnny Venters has been inconsistent in the setup role.

Bottom Line: Things could be worse for the Atlanta Braves. If everything falls into place perfectly, the Braves could go to their first championship series since 2001.

Cincinnati Reds: (97-65, Central, second playoff appearance in three years)

The Good: Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart are proving to be the Joey Votto and Jay Bruce of 2012, a pair of rookies proving to be future franchise players. Jay Bruce has finally matured as a solid cleanup hitter behind Joey Votto. While the Reds’ offense has dropped off quite a bit from two years ago, the pitching staff is nearly unmatched. The rotation missed just one start the entire season, and has proven to be one of the most consistent in the majors. The club’s bullpen has unparalleled depth: eight pitchers have more than 20 appearances, each have ERA’s under 4. Jonathon Broxton has been clutch down the stretch.

The Bad: While the pitching staff is nearly flawless, the Reds are running into offensive issues, namely on the corners. Joey Votto hasn’t hit a home run since coming off the DL, and is showing a serious decline in power. Scott Rolen is 37 and has spent a majority of the last two years on the DL. This could be his last shot in the sun. Drew Stubbs is one of the fastest guys in the majors, yet he consistently strikes out 160+ times a year.

Bottom Line: Best case scenario: Joey Votto finds his stroke, the rookie tandem contributes the pitching staff continues to dominate, and the Reds continue to dominate.

San Francisco Giants (94-68, West, 2010 World Champions)

The Good: The Giants have adapted very well to change and transactions. Since coming over from the Rockies, Marco Scutaro is having a career year at 36, hitting .362 in the last 50 games. Buster Posey made an improbable comeback from injury to win the NL batting title. The Giants’ rotation is home to four 14 game winners and three Cy Young contenders, plus Barry Zito, who won 15 games for the first time since arriving in San Francisco. The remaining members of the bullpen have picked up the slack for Brian Wilson, with Santiago Castilla and Sergio Romo sharing closing duties.

The Bad: Change isn’t always good. The club lacks the presence of Brian Wilson (Tommy John surgery) and Aubrey Huff (knee injury), both staples of the 2010 championship team. The Hunter Pence transaction hasn’t worked out as well as the Giants had hoped, reminiscent of the Aaron Rowand signing in 2007. Tim Lincecum appeared to lose focus this year, leading the league in losses. He’s been solid in the second half, but will Bruce Bochy risk starting him? The Melky Cabrera story appeared too good to be true, ending in a 50 game drug suspension. Cabrera lost the batting title; the Giants lost their best source of offense.

Bottom Line: In 2010, everything fell into place as the Giants caught fire in the playoffs. The club has persevered through much more diversity this season. The roster is drastically different; it will be interesting to see how they adapt.

St. Louis Cardinals (88-74, Wild Card, defending World Champions)

The Good: The Redbirds return most of their Championship roster from last season. The offense scored three more runs this season without Albert Pujols or Lance Berkman, the two leading RBI men from the Championship team. Allen Craig finally received the opportunity to start, slugging .500 since moving to first base. David Freese continues to build on his historic playoff performance, while Carlos Beltran had an age-defying season at the plate. Kyle Lohse and Lance Lynn have emerged as the new staff aces, combining for a 34-10 mark in the absence of Chris Carpenter. Jason Motte did not disappoint in his first season as closer, leading the NL with 42 saves.

The Bad: Rafael Furcal is aging rapidly, and will never be the leadoff threat he once was. The bullpen’s been shaky before the eighth inning, and each starting option has an extended history of injuries. Chris Carpenter has had three mediocre outings since coming off the DL in September.

Bottom Line: This team played much better than the record reflected. In 2011, the Cardinals made an example out of each team en route to a World Series. While this team is different, it isn’t necessarily worse, and experience is on their side.

Washington Nationals (98-64, East, second playoff appearance in 44 years)

The Good: The Nationals pitching staff is arguably the best in baseball. The team 3.34 ERA is the lowest in baseball, and only one member of the staff has an ERA over 4. Each pitcher who takes the mound has a different way of getting hitters out. Tyler Clippard has settled into the closer role nicely. On offense, the Nats wound up hitting 194 home runs, second in the National League. Mike Morse is back at full strength, and Adam LaRoche rebounded from an injury-plagued 2011. Jayson Werth fixed his stroke and is hitting over .300 since coming off the DL. The Nationals ended the regular season with the most extra base hits in the National League.

The Bad: The Nationals will be without Stephen Strasburg, who was shut down after 159 innings and 28 starts. As good as the rest of the staff is, losing 15 wins and 197 strikeouts is a tough blow. Bryce Harper and his rookie season have proven to be overhyped, and he probably won’t factor into the playoffs. Harper is only 19, and still needs to develop.

Bottom Line: In an ideal world, the Nationals would be a Cinderella Story, beat everyone, and win the World Series on a walk off. But this is real life, and the Nats are inexperienced and without Stephen Strasberg.