Evaluating the NFL Playoff Picture

With only three weeks remaining in the 2010-2011 NFL season, the time has officially arrived for fans to diligently study each individual conference’s standings. Fans of playoff contenders in both the AFC and NFC will memorize their team’s remaining schedule and every possible tie-breaking scenario known to the NFL. Below, I will organize this arduous task into one post that will be updated each week, compiling each playoff contender’s overall, division, and conference game records, as well as their remaining games.

The National Football Conference

To begin, let’s throw away the teams that have been statistically eliminated from playoff contention. Those include the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and Carolina Panthers, leaving 13 of the conference’s 16 squads.

Team Overall Record Division W-L Conference W-L
Atlanta Falcons* 11-2 4-0 8-1
Chicago Bears* 9-4 4-0 7-3
Philadelphia Eagles* 9-4 3-1 6-3
St. Louis Rams* 6-7 2-2 4-6
New Orleans Saints 10-3 3-1 8-2
New York Giants 9-4 2-2 7-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-5 2-3 6-3
Green Bay Packers 8-5 3-2 6-4
Seattle Seahawks 6-7 3-2 5-4
Minnesota Vikings 5-8 1-3 4-5
Washington Redskins 5-8 2-2 4-6
San Francisco 49ers 5-8 3-1 3-7
Arizona Cardinals 4-9 1-4 2-7
*Division Leader

To make it easier, let’s also discard the Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals from the playoff discussion. Statistically the teams are still alive, but they are essentially one non-perfect Sunday from being eliminated.

Now, let’s break the races down by each individual division.

NFC East

Teams in Contention: Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants (both 9-4)

Eagles’ Remaining Schedule: @ NYG, vs. Minnesota, vs. Dallas
Giants’ Remaining Schedule: vs. PHI, @ Green Bay, @ Washington

Of the two, the Eagles possess the better head-to-head and inter-division record, but with a win in their Week 15 matchup at home, the Giants would enjoy clear control of the NFC East crown. With that said, both teams control their own destiny, meaning if they win all their remaining games, they will win the division.

Prediction: The Giants win one of their next three games to finish 10-6, and the Eagles end the season 11-5 and win the divisional crown for the first time since 2006. The Eagles, after losses by the Bears and Packers in Week 14, should have no trouble earning a first-round bye.

NFC North

Teams in Contention: Chicago Bears, 9-4, and Green Bay Packers, 8-5

Bears’ Remaining Schedule: @ MIN, vs. New York Jets, @ GB
Packers’ Remaining Schedule: @ New England, vs. NYG, vs. CHI

The Bears already defeated the Packers in a penalty-filled Week 3 battle at Soldier Field, and the Packers suffered a possibly devastating blow to their division title hopes after a loss to the Lions this weekend. With Aaron Rodgers’ health in doubt after his second concussion in three months, the Packers will have their hands full with the New England Patriots this weekend. If the Bears lose out, which is very possible, the Packers, even with a loss to the Patriots, could win the division without the need for a tiebreaker.

Prediction: The Packers end the season 10-6 and capitalize on Bears’ struggles down the stretch to win the division for the first time under quarterback Aaron Rodgers, earning a first-round bye in the process. The Bears however, lose all of their three final games to garner a 9-7 mark that will keep them out of the playoffs.

NFC South

Teams in Contention: Atlanta Falcons, 11-2, New Orleans Saints, 10-3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-5

Falcons’ Remaining Schedule: @ Seattle, vs. NO, vs. CAR
Saints’ Remaining Schedule: @ Baltimore, @ ATL, vs. TB
Buccaneers’ Remaining Schedule: vs. Detroit, vs. SEA, @ NO

The Falcons are undefeated in the division, and despite three remaining games against NFC South opponents, that record should remain unblemished. A home game against Carolina will act as a virtual bye week, and a trip to Seattle in Week 15 should not be troublesome either. The Saints are on the fast track to one of the league’s two Wild Card spots; unfortunately for New Orleans, non-division winners cannot earn a first round bye or even host a first round playoff game. Tampa Bay has yet to defeat a team with a winning record, but with a win this past weekend, they should easily finish 10-6.

Prediction: The Falcons run the table and secure home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a 14-2 record. The Saints finish 11-5 and earn a playoff berth. As the top Wild Card seed in the NFC, the Saints will enjoy a hardly ominous Wild Card matchup, playing the NFC West’s winner in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Buccaneers finish at a respectable 10-6 mark after a Week 17 loss to the Saints, and the tiebreaker will depend on the two teams’ conference records or, if they are the same, their win percentage in games against common opponents.

NFC West

Teams in Contention: St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks, both 6-7, and San Francisco 49ers, 5-8

Rams’ Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas City, vs. SF, @ SEA
Seahawks’ Remaining Schedule: vs. ATL, @ TB, vs. STL
Niners’ Remaining Schedule: @ SD, @ STL, vs. ARI

It’s an utter embarrassment that not only will a team from this division earn a trip to the postseason but also host a January playoff game. If the winner of this division finishes below .500, it will be the first time in a non-strike shortened season that a team with more losses than wins earns a playoff berth. Thus, expect the league to alter the rules to allow for re-seeding once the playoffs begin so that mediocre division winners do not rob better teams of home playoff games.

Prediction: I do anticipate the Rams, despite a Week 17 loss at Seattle, to win the division at a mark of 8-8. Seattle’s schedule is too difficult, and the 49ers are one loss one away from being finished, which will happen in Week 15 against the Chargers. Four of the Rams’ six wins have come at the Edward Jones Dome, and I expect them to continue their home success against the Chiefs and 49ers.

American Football Conference

In the AFC, let’s also eliminate the teams that have been statistically eliminated from playoff contention to start, which includes the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and Denver Broncos.

Team Overall Record Division W-L Conference W-L
New England Patriots* 11-2 3-1 8-2
Pittsburgh Steelers* 10-3 4-1 8-2
Jacksonville Jaguars* 8-5 3-1 7-3
Kansas City Chiefs* 8-5 2-3 5-5
Baltimore Ravens 9-4 2-2 7-3
New York Jets 9-4 3-2 7-3
San Diego Chargers 7-6 2-3 6-4
Indianapolis Colts 7-6 2-2 5-4
Miami Dolphins 7-6 2-2 5-5
Oakland Raiders 6-7 4-0 4-5
Houston Texans 5-8 2-2 4-5
Cleveland Browns 5-8 1-2 3-6
Tennessee Titans 5-8 1-3 2-7
* Division Leader

Now that we have acknowledged all possible playoff contenders, let’s eliminate the pretenders from the list. The Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins, though not statistically eliminated, possess little playoff hope.

Again, let’s examine each divisional race.

AFC East

Teams in Contention: New England Patriots, 11-2, and New York Jets, 9-4

Patriots’ Remaining Schedule: vs. GB, @ BUF, vs. MIA
Jets’ Remaining Schedule: @ PIT, @ CHI, vs. BUF

The Patriots have all but wrapped up the AFC East and appear to be a clear favorite in the entire NFL. With only one middle test left against the Green Bay Packers on their schedule, expect the Patriots to finish 14-2 and secure home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Jets, on the other hand, appear to be slipping, but the team should only need one win in its final three games to wrap up a Wild Card berth. Even if they lose to the Steelers and Bears, the Jets should win at home over the Buffalo Bills.

Prediction: The Patriots extend their winning streak to eight games to conclude a 14-2 regular season and earn a postseason bid, and the Jets finish 11-5 and earn one of the conference’s two Wild Card bids.

AFC North

Teams in Contention: Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-3, and Baltimore Ravens, 9-4

Steelers’ Remaining Schedule: vs. NYJ, vs. CAR, @ CLE
Ravens’ Remaining Schedule: vs. NO, @ CLE, vs. CIN

After a Sunday night victory over the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 13, the Steelers emerged as a strong favorite in the AFC North and for a first round playoff bye. Outside of a Week 15 matchup with the Jets at Heinz Field, the Steelers’ remaining schedule is the least bit ominous. The Ravens control their own destiny to the top Wild Card berth, which they should easily attain.

Prediction: The Steelers and Ravens both win their final four games on the way to postseason berths. The Steelers, finishing at 13-3, earn a first round playoff bye, and the Ravens, 12-4, earn the top Wild Card berth.

AFC South

Teams in Contention: Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-5, and Indianapolis Colts, 7-6

Jaguars’ Remaining Schedule: @ IND, vs. WAS, @ HOU
Colts’ Remaining Schedule: vs. JAC, @ OAK, vs. IND

The Texans and Titans have been gradually descending throughout the past few weeks after fast starts, and neither team appears to have anything left. Thus, the race has come down to the Colts and Jaguars, who both possess fairly easy schedules down the stretch. Both teams control their own destiny, so do not be surprised if the winner of the Week 15 head-to-head matchup wins the division title.

Prediction: The Colts and Jaguars both finish 10-6, but due to identical divisional and conference records, the tiebreaker comes down to record against common opponents. The Colts will finish 8-4 in said category, whereas the Jaguars will fall a game behind at 7-5, giving the Colts the AFC South championship for the seventh time in the division’s nine-year history. The Jaguars, despite a 10-6 finish, will miss the playoffs.

AFC West

Teams in Contention: Kansas City Chiefs, 8-5, San Diego Chargers, 7-6, and Oakland Raiders, 6-7

Chiefs’ Playoff Contention: @ STL, vs. TEN, vs. OAK
Chargers’ Playoff Contention: vs. SF, @ CIN, @ DEN
Raiders’ Playoff Contention: vs. Denver, vs. IND, @ KC

The Chiefs, with a game lead but their schedule does not get much easier in the next two weeks. With that said, as long as the Chiefs win out, an 11-5 mark will earn them the division title, even if the Raiders, Chargers, or both win their final three games. If the Raiders finish strong and somehow tie for the division lead, their 4-0 divisional record will help them out immensely in any tiebreak scenario, but at this point this is simply not realistic. Even though the Chargers have won five of their previous six contests, this team cannot be trusted down the stretch after a Week 13 loss to the Raiders.

Prediction: The Chiefs find a way to win two of their final three games, end the season 10-6 and become the first team besides the Chargers to win the AFC West since 2005. The Chargers overcome a 2-5 start to finish 9-7 behind MVP candidate Phillip Rivers, and the Raiders defy all preseason expectations to finish 7-9.