Analyzing the Super Bowl: Examining Each Position

The entire sports lexicon will have its collective eyes glued to the television Sunday, beginning with the countless hours of unyielding pregame coverage until the game’s 6:29 p.m. kickoff. The Super Bowl will attract a worldwide television audience of more than 100 million people. Will the Pittsburgh Steelers extend their league record number of Super Bowl championships to seven, or can the Green Bay Packers earn the right to bring the Lombardi Trophy “back home” to “Titletown” for the fourth time? To gain a better perspective on the matchup, let’s examine the head-to-head matchups at each position area, starting with the signal callers.

QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Last year, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning highlighted one of the best quarterback matchups in Super Bowl history. This year, there’s not much of a drop off, as both quarterbacks certainly belong in the conversation as the league’s best passer.

Aaron Rodgers may very well be the most important player to his team in the entire National Football League. On a team that lacks a formidable rushing attack, Rodgers is frequently asked to put the team on his shoulders, and with Pittsburgh’s elite run defense, this is likely to be the case on Sunday. In the postseason, outside of an onerous stretch last week against a stifling Bears defense, Rodgers has been nothing but stellar in three postseason road victories, boasting a 109.3 quarterback rating. Rodgers has completed 71 percent of his passes and thrown six touchdown passes to only two interceptions. In wins against Atlanta and Chicago, Rodgers added a rushing touchdown, as well.

Rodgers enjoys the more impressive playoff statistics, but Roethlisberger has already won 10 postseason games, as well as two Super Bowl championships. “Big Ben” is a handful for pass rushers to bring to the ground, and his ability to extend the play is a major reason why Pittsburgh remains in title contention. Roethlisberger’s lifetime playoff statistics may be mediocre, for he possesses an 85.4 passer rating and has thrown 14 interceptions in 12 games. But, as the cliché dictates, the ultimate statistic lies in the win-loss column.

EDGE: DRAW

RUNNING BACK: GB vs. PIT

Packers’ rookie RB James Starks leads the NFL in rushing yards this postseason, with 263 yards on 70 carries. However, 123 of these yards came in a Wild Card victory over a porous Philadelphia Eagles front seven. Against better defensive fronts in Atlanta and Chicago, Starks has struggled to find the necessary holes to reach the defense’s second level. With that said, head coach Mike McCarthy’s commitment to the run has resulted in Starks attaining at least 22 carries in all three games. If I had to guess, though, we’ll see more Brandon Jackson this week, with the Packers using their third-down, pass-blocking back in spread packages to attack the Steelers’ pass defense. Green Bay utilized this formation with success in their 37-36 loss to the Steelers in December 2009 at Heinz Field. Look for halfback/fullback John Kuhn in short-yardage situations, too.

Rashard Mendenhall headlines a Steelers backfield that proved to be problematic for a generally stout New York Jets’ rushing defense in the AFC Championship Game. Despite playing the Baltimore Ravens and Jets, Mendenhall has still managed 167 yards in two playoff games. Against a rushing defense that surrendered 4.7 yards per carry to regular season opponents but has been better in the postseason, Mendenhall should be able to find some holes, even with an injury-depleted offensive line leading the way. When the Steelers revert to obvious passing formations, RB Mewelde Moore could be a factor, though he’s only caught one pass for nine years thus far this postseason.

EDGE: PITTSBURGH

RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: GB vs. PIT

Even after explosive tight end Jermichael Finley suffered a season-ending knee injury in an early season loss to the Washington Redskins, the Packers continue to arguably possess the most talented receiving corps in the entire NFL. Greg Jennings earned his first career Pro Bowl bid this season after hauling in 12 touchdown passes, and Donald Driver, though aging, remains a consistent threat to defenses and is one of the most difficult players to tackle after the catch in the league. Jordy Nelson continues to grow as a pass-catcher and is the Packers’ best run-blocking receiver, and James Jones, despite wild inconsistencies, possesses more raw talent than many top targets around the NFL. At tight end, rookies Andrew Quarless and Tom Crabtree are improving as pass catchers, in addition to providing solid blocking up front.

In contrast, the Steelers possess one of the league’s most complete tight ends in Heath Miller, and Mike Wallace has supplanted Hines Ward as the team’s biggest threat on the outside. Ward and Antwaan Randle El have Super Bowl championships on their respective resumes. Finally, after a game-changing catch late in the fourth quarter against the Ravens on a 3rd-and-19, Emmanuel Sanders has proven to be a threat worthy of any defensive coordinator’s attention.

Ultimately, with the Steelers’ weaknesses at cornerback, the Packers should enjoy at least some success on the fast turf surface of Cowboys Stadium. The last time the Packers played in an indoor facility, they lit up the Georgia Dome with 48 points and 366 yards through the air.

EDGE: GREEN BAY

OFFENSIVE LINE: GB vs. PIT

Neither front five is daunting for defensive linemen, linebackers and blitzing cornerbacks and safeties, but each unit has withstood injuries. Packers’ right tackle Mark Tauscher was placed on injured reserve during the regular season, and rookie Bryan Bulaga, despite periodic struggles, has performed admirably in his place. Steelers’ offensive tackles Willie Colon and Max Starks have both been placed on injured reserve, and starting Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is doubtful with a high left ankle sprain. Former Cowboys offensive tackle Flozell Adams has played well as of late, but he will have his hands full with the relentless Clay Matthews, the runner-up for Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year, much like Bulaga will be occupied with outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley.

Fortunately for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh, their quarterbacks are mobile and routinely make defenders miss. In Rodgers’s case, he does so with speed, agility and footwork while Roethlisberger uses his size and strength. In the end, this game has the makings of an aerial attack, so as long as both lines can give their quarterbacks enough time to find open receivers, there should not be an issue. But because of the fine seasons that left tackle Chad Clifton and right guard Josh Sitton are compiling for Green Bay, I’ll give the Packers a slight edge.

EDGE: GREEN BAY

DEFENSIVE LINE: GB vs. PIT

Even the most casual football fan understands that the defensive line provides the formation of a defense. Both the Packers and the Steelers operate 3-4 defensive schemes, meaning three down defensive linemen and four linebackers are on the field when the teams are in their base sets. At nose tackle, the Packers, with B.J. Raji, have an emerging young star who, especially in the last two months, has displayed an ability to consistently beat a double team and even sack the quarterback. His counterpart, Casey Hampton, has built a reputation as one of the league’s best, earning five Pro Bowl selections throughout his glorified career.

At the ends, the Packers list veterans in Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins as starters. Playing for a new contract, Jenkins has been stellar all year, and he even played multiple games with a broken hand that hampered his sack total. Jenkins is coming off perhaps the best game of his career this past Sunday, when he was constantly in the backfield wreaking havoc on Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.

For the Steelers, although former Pro Bowl end Aaron Smith is unlikely to play with a ruptured triceps that he suffered Oct. 24, end Ziggy Hood has demonstrated an ability to respectably replace Smith. On the other side, Brett Keisel is coming off a season in which he earned his first career Pro Bowl appearance.

The two units match up with one another very closely, and with second-year backup Doug Legursky likely to start at center for the Steelers, I am somewhat inclined to give the Packers a slight edge, considering the success B.J. Raji has enjoyed with his interior penetration. But based on Super Bowl experience as a deciding factor, I’ll give the Steelers a slight advantage.

EDGE: PITTSBURGH

LINEBACKERS: GB vs. PIT

Out of the game’s eight starting linebackers, three, including Matthews, Woodley and James Harrison, are top-tier players. For the Packers, Matthews serves as the defense’s driving force, as his relentless motor renders him the best pass-rushing outside linebacker in the NFL. On the opposite side, the status of both Erik Walden and Frank Zombo is unknown, though it appears that both should be able to play. This will be the first time Zombo has been active since December, and his ability to set the edge on running downs, coupled with Walden’s skills as a pass rusher, should benefit defensive coordinator Dom Capers’s unit. On the inside, A.J. Hawk, the defensive play-caller, and Desmond Bishop are both playing excellent football, which few predicted after Nick Barnett and Brandon Chillar both landed on injured reserve.

For the Steelers, Harrison and Woodley are dynamic athletes and will give Clifton and Bulaga, respectively, all they can handle at offensive tackle. On the inside, James Farrior is a two-time Pro Bowler, and Lawrence Timmons leads the team with 19 combined tackles in the postseason. In the regular season, Timmons and Farrior were the team’s top two tacklers, each notching more than 100 takedowns for coordinator Dick LeBeau’s squad.

Again, both units are worthy of all the praise, yet I will again give the edge to the Steelers because all four starting linebackers are Super Bowl champions. The only player on the Packers’ active roster with a ring is John Kuhn, which he earned as a member of the Steelers’ practice squad in 2006.

EDGE: PITTSBURGH

SECONDARY: GB vs. PIT

With Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Nick Collins, the Packers register three Pro Bowlers in their starting secondary. Woodson is as complete of a defensive player as there is in the NFL, possessing the ability to drop back in coverage, rush the quarterback and bring down a bulky ball carrier. Williams has been the best cover corner in the NFC throughout the season, and rookie Sam Shields gives the Packers tremendous depth at the position. While the Packers rarely use a dime package, corner Jarrett Bush will be targeted by the Steelers when on the field, as he was when the two teams met last year, resulting in multiple long pass plays. At safety, Nick Collins is a threat to intercept any pass thrown in his vicinity, and Charlie Peprah, filling in at strong safety for the injured Morgan Burnett, has taken the job away from veteran Atari Bigby with strong performances.

Cornerback is considered to be the weak spot of the Steelers’ defense. Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden form a corner tandem that the Packers will undoubtedly be looking to exploit. As a member of the Arizona Cardinals in last year’s postseason, McFadden frequently saw Greg Jennings lined up across from him. In that game, Jennings caught eight balls for 130 yards and one touchdown. At safety, however, the Steelers boast the AP Defensive Player of the year in Troy Polamalu, who’s been battling a strained Achilles tendon for a good portion of the season. At the other safety spot, Ryan Clark is generally effective, and he had a key interception of Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco in their divisional round playoff meeting. Nickel and dime corners William Gay and Anthony Madison will surely be tested by the Packers’ deep receiving corps, as well.

EDGE: GREEN BAY

SPECIAL TEAMS: GB vs. PIT

The Packers have struggled covering kickoffs through coordinator Shawn Slocum’s tenure in Green Bay, as evidenced by Eric Weems’ touchdown return in the divisional round for the Falcons. Fortunately for the Packers, they are not encountering Devin Hester or Weems this week. Nevertheless, Antonio Brown is a viable return threat, scoring a touchdown in an early season meeting with the Tennessee Titans. On punt returns, Tim Masthay has been effective at neutralizing opposing returners since a Week 3 debacle against the Bears at Soldier Field. Antwaan Randle El and Brown will likely split the opportunities, but the longest return either has mustered this postseason was a 12-yarder by Brown.

For Pittsburgh, covering kicks and punts should be the least of their concerns. The Packers have shuffled kickoff returners all year, with James Starks getting the nod in the NFC Championship Game. If cornerback Patrick Lee is active, expect to see him on returns, and if the hands team is on the field, Charles Woodson will assume the responsibility. On punts, Tramon Williams does not cough up the football, but he does not pose a threat to opposing units, either.

Exiled Packers’ punter Jeremy Kapinos starts for the Steelers, and given the recent achievements by Masthay, he will assuredly be outdueled. At kicker, Mason Crosby is inconsistent and has only been asked to kick three field goals this postseason, making two of them against Atlanta. Shaun Suisham has certainly made the rounds in the NFL, and there’s a reason why. If this game comes down to a crucial kick, I would not trust either right leg, but Crosby is clearly the better of the two.

The Packers, on paper, possess the advantage, but their kickoff coverage units are prone to making mistakes in close games. Thus, I will give a slight edge to the Steelers in this scenario, though I don’t think special teams will decide this contest.

EDGE: PITTSBURGH

COACHING: Mike McCarthy vs. Mike Tomlin

After a December loss to the Detroit Lions that, at the time, appeared to knock the Packers out of the playoff chase, fans were calling for McCarthy’s termination at season’s end. Since, the Packers have won five of six games, and McCarthy, with two years left on his current contract, is likely to receive an extension after the Super Bowl, regardless of the game’s outcome. As the team’s play caller, McCarthy has incorporated a somewhat successful rushing attack into the team’s game plan to open up play-action pass openings, and Rodgers has thrived in these situations. While McCarthy tends to call conservative plays down the stretch in tight games, it’s hard to argue with his success in these playoffs, for the Packers are the first NFC sixth seed to ever advance to the Super Bowl.

Mike Tomlin is not mentioned among the league’s premier football minds, but he understands how to relate to his players, and this translates into a winning product on the field. Even though he’s only 38 years old, Tomlin has already won two AFC Championship titles and one Super Bowl. In six postseason games, he only has one loss on his resume. Thus, he deserves the edge over McCarthy, who is in his first trip to the Super Bowl as a head coach.

EDGE: PITTSBURGH

Super Bowl XLV seems to possess all the makings of a close, down-to-the-wire game. Even though they’re inexperienced, I predict the Green Bay Packers, who are currently two and a half point favorites, to topple the Steelers and earn the team’s first Lombardi Trophy in 14 years. The Packers should have success moving the ball through the air against the Steelers’ cornerbacks, and I expect the Packers’ talented secondary to take away the big play opportunities that Mike Wallace provides.

PREDICTION: GREEN BAY 27, PITTSBURGH 24