Oscar Predictions 2011

Picking “should wins” and “will wins” can be tricky, but at the end of the night, only one nominee per category will get to take home the big prize. So while we’re here to make our official predictions about who will take home the prize, we also want to celebrate some of the work that may not be recognized with a trophy on Sunday. The Academy Awards air Sunday on ABC at 8 p.m. Best Picture: The King’s Speech The Social Network True Grit 127 Hours Inception The Kids Are All Right Toy Story 3 Black Swan Winter’s Bone The Fighter Will Win: The King’s Speech This has been one of the most difficult Best Picture races to predict in recent memory. It’s honestly a two-horse race between The King’s Speech and the The Social Network. They are two very different films, but both fantastic in their own rite. Yes, on the surface The King’s Speech appears to be your typical Oscar bait: period piece, royalty, characters overcoming personal struggles, great British acting. However, calling it Oscar bait really demeans what a great achievement it truly is. Director Tom Hooper’s film is witty, engaging, insightful and intensely enjoyable. It’s recent string of victories with the SGA, DGA and PGA — that is, the groups that really count when it comes to Oscar voting — indicate that it’s most likely to take home the ultimate prize. That doesn’t mean it is the most deserving though … Should Win: The Social Network Indeed, The King’s Speech, is a great filmmaking achievement. But The Social Network is a filmmaking landmark. Many years from now, The King’s Speech will most likely be viewed fondly as a great movie for its time, but The Social Network is generation-defining — not because it is a movie about Facebook, but because it captures the spirit of our particular social situation: the paradoxical age of connected-disconnect. The Social Network is a film for our time, and because of that it is a film for all time. It will be recognized as such some day, that day just might not be Sunday. Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech David Fincher, The Social Network Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit David O. Russell, The Fighter Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Should and Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network While the Best Picture race is still a bit a hazy, the directing category looks like a clear win for the notorious perfectionist Fincher. This is really a case of doing the most with the least. Fincher was able to take a story about computer science and intellectual property law and turn it into a gorgeous film-going experience. While his toughest competition, Tom Hooper, had the opportunity to work with a veritable who’s-who of British thespians, Fincher was able to coax magnificent performances out of the awkward kid from Zombieland, a no-name American-Brit and the former lead singer of *NSYNC. Fincher lost out in this category two years ago, and he should have — there were better candidates. This year, the perfectionist nearly achieved just that: perfection. He should and will be recognized for doing such. Best Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Natalie Portman, Black Swan Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan This may very well be the only win of the night for Darren Aronofsky’s dark ballet mind-bender – and it would be a well-deserved win at that. Portman turns a truly daring performance as Nina, a fragile but rigidly obsessed up-and-coming ballet superstar. Portman takes us to every dark crevice of Nina’s twisted and disturbed psyche. What’s most impressive is that she keeps this strange journey totally believable even as Aronofsky works in his trademark metaphorical flourishes. Portman has been racking up every lead-actress award this season. Expect the Academy to follow suit. Should Win: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right Unfortunately, it looks as if the four-time Oscar nominee will have to settle for bridesmaid duties yet again. He performance as Nic — the wine-guzzling, hard-working half of the lesbian couple whose marriage has hit a rough-spot — is both subtly fierce and brimming with intensity. The palate of emotions Bening displays is both varied and deep. She inhabits that familiar place at the nucleus of the archetypal American family at conflict with itself, but does so in a completely new and refreshing way. In years to come, I believe Bening’s performance will be held up as a benchmark in her already-stellar career. As for right now, though, it doesn’t look like she has the momentum to dethrone the (Swan) Queen. Best Actor: Javier Bardem, Biutiful Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network James Franco, 127 Hours Jeff Bridges, True Grit Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Undertaking the role of a historic figure, Firth doesn’t disappointment. Already winner of a SAG, BAFTA and Golden Globe for his portrayal of King George VI, Firth seems poised to take home the big prize for his multi-dimensional turn as a man desperately seeking to eradicate the one thing preventing him from leading his people — a stammer. Firth doesn’t mimic Albert’s speech problem, but rather he imbues it with all of Albert’s frustrations and vulnerabilities. It looks like this year’s awards will only have a few sure-bets; this is one of them. Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Although Eisenberg has played some awkward teens before (think Adventureland), his portrayal of the fictionalized Mark Zuckerberg was captivating. A character that could be easy to villainize became multi-faceted, simultaneously obnoxious and pitiable. Unlike his previous roles, Eisenberg’s short and abrupt mannerisms and often deadpan dialogue delivery resulted in one of the most memorable and deserving performances of the year. Unfortunately for Eisenberg, it looks like this will be the year to award the well-established and consistent performer, Firth. Nevertheless, we surely can continue to expect great work from this young actor. Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit This one is a tough call. Melissa Leo has been out in front most of the award season for her turn as Alice Ward, the tyrannical matriarch of the Ward boxing family, in The Fighter. However, Leo’s recent self-campaigning controversy combined with a potential vote-split with fellow Fighter actress Amy Adams and the Academy’s penchant for younger actors leads us to believe newcomer Steinfeld will take home the trophy Sunday night. The 14-year-old impressed critics with her mature and nuanced portrayal of Mattie Ross, the young girl at the center of the Coen Brothers’ interpretation of Charles Portis’ 1968 novel. In Grit, Steinfeld held her own next to and at points even stole the show from Hollywood veterans Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. Come Sunday, she may very well steal the show again. Should Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter Strange, busty, faux-fur-your-consideration advertisements aside (link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/11/oscar-predictions-did-mel_n_821...), Leo did turn in the best supporting performance by any actress this year. Leo’s Alice Ward is a powerful combination of menace, tenacity and tenderness. She’s like Lady Macbeth, Carmela Soprano and Molly Weasley all rolled into one. For the past few months this race was Leo’s to lose. Recent developments have now made it a toss-up. Still, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see Leo accepting the award she so definitely deserves. Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right Should and Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter From the moment we see fallen boxer Dicky Ward, being interviewed on the family’s couch, it’s almost as if Bale isn’t even there. The sporadic movements, the choppy language, the sickly thin appearance — Bale is completely lost in his character. As famed boxer Micky Ward’s addicted and delusional older brother, Bale manages to craft a complex character who can both alienate the audience with his selfishness and win their sympathy with his obvious (yet sometimes misguided) love for his family. Bale brings us along on Dicky’s struggle to get clean and help his brother fulfill the boxing dreams that he, Dicky, lost long ago. It’s not necessarily a subtle performance (Dicky is an over-the-top character), but it never feels like a parody of the real life persona. Bale’s first nomination already has him racking up awards (including a SAG and a Golden Globe) and this is really his race to lose. Best Writing — Adapted Screenplay: Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufouy, 127 Hours Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3 Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone Should and Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network (adapted from Ben Mezrich’s The Accidental Billionaires) Overall, it’s the best written film of the year, adapted or original. All you have to do is watch the opening exchange between Mark Zuckerberg and his girlfriend Erica to understand how fast this movie is going to move. Back and forth, back and forth — and while Erica comments that dating Mark is like “dating a stairmaster” the audience may also feel similarly about watching Sorkin’s screenplay in action. But there is no denying how sharp his writing is as he takes what had been informally dubbed as the “Facebook movie” and makes it about so much more — an epic tale of power and greed complete with laugh out loud humor and gasp-inducing drama. Stylistically, Sorkin bounces between two different legal hearings, the Harvard’s campus, and California’s Silicon Valley. Sorkin, who compared the film to Rashomon (link: http://www.observer.com/2010/culture/aaron-sorkin-says-social-network-is...), plays with chronology and point of view. The result is film that keeps audiences thinking and entertained — something that is becoming exceedingly rare. Best Writing — Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King’s Speech Christopher Nolan, Inception Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson and Keith Dorrington, The Fighter Mike Leigh, Another Year Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right Will Win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech Incredibly witty and heartfelt, Seidler’s screenplay manages to craft a story that was engaging without the usual pulls of sex and violence so often overdone in movies. An overcoming-obstacles-story is always good to pull at the heartstrings, and even though Seidler had the benefit of having real characters to build his story around, his deft writing gave audiences the people beyond the historical, royal expectations. The dialogue between Firth and Bonham-Carter, and Firth and Rush, is often playful, yet sincere, and what could have been a stuffy movie about nobility, became a realistically touching portrait of the loving and supportive relationships between family and friends. Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception Conceptually, Inception was the most innovative and exciting film this year. Nolan’s screenplay created a complex layered world and fun characters that left audiences just confused enough to keep debating the film, but not enough to make it a waste of a viewer’s time. It is by far the most original story in the original screenplay category, but it will probably fall short this year is as the Academy tends to prefer well-written dialogue over a brilliant concept.