Oscar Predictions 2010

Best Picture:

An Education
A Serious Man
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Up
Up in the Air

Should and Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Best Picture predicting got a little tougher this year when the Academy increased the nomination pool to ten films. While a select few are dominating the pack, the new preferential voting that the Academy will be using this year means voters’ second and third choices may be a deciding factor. This means the more divisive Avatar may be at a disadvantage, making the consistently praised The Hurt Locker the favorite— and deservingly so. It’s a gripping edge of your seat thriller that’s relevant to the times and the most engaging film of the year.

Best Director:

James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Should and Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
It’s a pretty sure bet that the Best Director statue this year will go to a woman for the first time in Oscar history. Bigelow has already won a Directors Guild Award and a BAFTA for The Hurt Locker. Her toughest competition comes from James Cameron, who won the Golden Globe for Best Director for Avatar. But ultimately, Bigelow — whose past work includes Point Break and Near Dark ——will take home the prize for her ability to craft an intensely personal and emotional portrait of the Iraq War.

Best Actor:

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Should and Will Win: Jeff Bridges
The five-time nominee is primed to take home his first golden-boy for his excellent turn as Bad Blake, a boozy country singer desperately seeking redemption. Bridges has taken home most of the major pre-Oscar prizes this year. Also, none of the other nominees appear to have the gusto to steal it from him, the way Sean Penn did to Mickey Rourke last year. Interestingly, Bad Blake shares many similarities with Rourke’s character in The Wrestler, but we trust the Academy won’t make the same mistake two years in a row.

Best Actress:

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Will Win: Sandra Bullock:

Bullock’s Golden Globe win back in January propelled her from a dark horse in the category to the frontrunner. From there, Bullock went on to win the Screen Actors Guild award, marking her as a favorite among actresses. Overall, critics have been impressed with her turn as the strong-willed Leigh Anne Tuohy in The Blind Side, a departure from her typical comedic work. Couple this with the film’s broad appeal— it was nominated for Best Picture— and it looks to be Bullock’s year.

Should Win: Meryl Streep
Streep also won a Golden Globe for her turn as cooking legend Julia Child. Instead of an impersonation of Child’s notoriously bubbly and energetic personality, Streep completely immersed herself in the character, exploring with subtle emotion the lesser-known moments of Child’s life, career and relationships. This is her sixteenth Oscar nomination, so there is no questioning Streep’s talent. Arguably, Streep had the tougher character to play, needing to emulate an American icon, versus Bullock undertaking the role of a sassy, yet unfamiliar mother. While a Streep win isn’t impossible, at this point Bullock seems to have accumulated enough steam to propel past an acting legend this year.

Best Supporting Actor:

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Should and Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Before Inglourious Basterds, Waltz was an Austrian stage actor unknown to American audiences. However, his turn as the wonderfully diabolic Nazi Hans Landa in Quentin Tarantino’s World War II revenge fantasy has earned him a place as one of cinema’s great villains. Critics haven’t stopped talking about Waltz’s performance since the film premiered at Cannes, and he’s racked up nearly every award in this category thus far. So will he win? “That’s a bingo!”

Best Supporting Actress:

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Should and Will Win: Mo’Nique
The Up In The Air ladies were charming, Cruz shone the brightest in Nine’s all-star cast, and Maggie Gyllenhaal snuck into the category with a strong performance in Crazy Heart, but Mo’Nique was a powerhouse of emotion in Precious, convincingly playing the most complex character in this group of nominees: the destructive and abusive mother of the film’s title character. There is no hint whatsoever of her comedic self – instead, fear is palpable every moment she is on screen. Already winner of the Golden Globe, the SAG award and virtually every critics’ choice award, she has this prize locked up.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Up in the Air

Should and Will Win: Up In The Air
Up in the Air is up for Best Picture, Best Director, and its three main stars are all up for acting awards, but as it stands right now, all of those are long shots for a win. The screenplay, adapted from Walter Kirn’s novel, by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, is this critically adored film’s best shot at taking home an Oscar, and luckily it both deserves it and stands a great chance at winning. Combining unique characters, sharp comedic dialogue and relatable emotion, all set against the timely backdrop of economic downsizing, the writing played a strong role in elevating this film to its acclaimed status. It won the Golden Globe and Writers’ Guild Award and doesn’t have much in the way of serious competition.

Best Original Screenplay:

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Will Win: Inglourious Bastereds
The Weinstein’s have made a huge push to get Basterds in the Best Picture discussion. While there is a still a chance they could pull off an upset for the big prize, it looks like they will have to settle for an original screenplay consolation. Academy voters will be quick to reward Tarantino’s ferocious dialogue and unique storytelling abilities. It will be déjà vu for Tarantino, who took home the writing statue in 1995 for Pulp Fiction, but went home otherwise empty-handed.

Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Journalist-turned-screenwriter Mark Boal’s script is based on his experiences with a bomb-disposal unit in Iraq. Despite recent claims that the film inaccurately depicts military life, Boal succeeds in scribing the most visceral and compelling Iraq war drama to date. The dialogue in The Hurt Locker may be sparse, but it’s tight and fraught with emotion. Boal succeeds in bringing us to the front lines of this incredibly dangerous job. By all accounts, it’s a toss-up with Basterds over who will win this prize, so don’t be surprised to see Boal standing up on the stage March 7.